Climate change presents significant challenges to the habitat suitability of Camellia japonica, a key species in East Asian ecosystems. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of Camellia japonica in South Korea using species distribution models (SDMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Eleven SDMs, including an ensemble model weighted mean (EMW), were applied to predict habitat suitability from 2010 to 2070. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa statistics, with EMW achieving the highest accuracy (ROC mean, 0.941), validating its reliability for integrated predictions. Bioclimatic variables, specifically mean diurnal range (BIO2) and annual precipitation (BIO12), were identified as the most influential factors driving habitat suitability. Under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5), Camellia japonica habitats remained stable or showed slight expansion, maintaining suitability across coastline and central inland regions. Under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), Its habitat is expected to expand more rapidly and extensively across the eastern coastline and inland regions. Habitat shifts towards higher altitudes were observed across all scenarios, suggesting potential refugia in mountainous regions. This study highlights the vulnerability of Camellia japonica to climate change and the critical need for emission reduction policies to mitigate habitat loss. The findings provide actionable insights for conservation planning, emphasizing adaptive management strategies, such as preserving high-altitude refuges and restoring lowland habitats. Future research should incorporate additional ecological factors and higher-resolution datasets to refine predictions and guide sustainable biodiversity conservation efforts.
Climate change significantly impacts the distribution and habitat suitability of insects, particularly those highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations. This study evaluated the habitat changes of 12 climate-sensitive insect species in South Korea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, using random forest (RF) models. Bioclimatic variables, including annual mean temperature (BIO1) and annual precipitation (BIO12), were identified as key contributors to habitat suitability changes. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values exceeding 0.8 for five species, such as Papilio helenus and Argynnis hyperbius, while six species, including Sympetrum pedemontanum elatum, exhibited lower predictability due to data distribution challenges. The results revealed that SSP2-4.5 allowed more stable or expanding habitats for certain species, such as Argynnis hyperbius and Lampides boeticus, where habitat areas significantly increased by 2070. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 showed drastic habitat reductions for most species, including Camponotus kiusiuensis and Sympetrum pedemontanum elatum, with some habitats shrinking by over 90% by 2090. The study underscores the importance of climate variables, with temperature and precipitation consistently influencing habitat changes across species. This research provides critical insights into the ecological risks posed by climate change and emphasizes the necessity of mitigation strategies. While some species demonstrate adaptive potential under moderate scenarios, others face severe vulnerabilities under extreme climate conditions. These findings offer valuable guidance for biodiversity conservation and policy-making, highlighting the need for integrated approaches that account for non-climatic factors such as land-use changes.
This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of eight subalpine plant species in South Korea under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Using high-resolution climate data and random forest-based species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted habitat changes between 2010 and 2090s. Key bioclimatic variables, including annual mean temperature (BIO1) and annual precipitation (BIO12), were identified as primary drivers of habitat shifts. SSP5-8.5 scenarios resulted in significant habitat losses and upward altitudinal shifts, with species such as Pinus pumila and Abies nephrolepis losing all suitable habitats by 2090s. In contrast, SSP1-2.6 indicated more stable conditions, preserving habitats for species like Abies holophylla and Taxus cuspidata, highlighting the potential benefits of emission reduction efforts. This study underscores the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies and robust emission mitigation policies to protect high-risk species and regions, safeguarding subalpine biodiversity. These findings provide a scientific foundation for policymakers to design sustainable biodiversity conservation strategies and foster climate resilience in subalpine ecosystems.
Background In Northern hemisphere, climate change has shifted the habitats of many species including butterflies into the northern regions. Many researchers in Europe and North America have reported this type of northward shift of butterflies. Thus, we collected the species occurrence data of southern butterflies and presented in this study for understanding the impact of climate change on the southern butterflies in the future.
New information: This study presents the 456 occurrence data of nine southern butterflies under five families in Korea. These data were selected from the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey (NES) conducted by National Institute of Environment Research (NIER) in Korea. Those will be a part of input data for MOTIVE-Ecosystem model, an integrative model to understand the influence of climate change and land cover change on the habitat suitability of sensitive, native and invasive species. These data will be important to the researchers and conservation agencies for understanding the current conditions of southern butterflies and developing conservation policy.
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Northward Range Expansion of Southern Butterflies According to Climate Change in South Korea Pradeep Adhikari, Ja-Young Jeon, Hyun Woo Kim, Hong-Shik Oh, Prabhat Adhikari, Changwan Seo Journal of Climate Change Research.2020; 11(6-1): 643. CrossRef